This week in the studio, editor-in-chief JP Clark sits down with Bryan Groves to discuss his new book,When Presidents Fight the Last War: The Oval Office, Sunk Costs, and Wartime Decision-Making Since Vietnam. Groves, a U.S. Army strategist and accomplished academic, focuses on the difficult mid-conflict course-correction decisions made by presidents. His research uses an interdisciplinary approach to analyze how the enormous “sunk costs” of war—lives, time, and treasure—tempt presidents to escalate or “double down” on a conflict rather than cut their losses. Groves’s analysis of five cases—including the Iraq surge and the Desert Storm endgame—reveals a major historical pivot: while pre-9/11 decisions were often guided by the fear of repeating the Vietnam “quagmire,” post-9/11 decisions were also driven by the powerful lesson of preventing another domestic catastrophe.
So from Vietnam to 9/11, avoiding a quagmire, “no more Vietnams” as the bumper sticker was the lesson… 9/11 was different than previous catastrophes… and was able to replace the Vietnam lessons as dominant because it was a uniquely American tragedy.
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Bryan Groves is a colonel in the U.S. Army and an accomplished academic. He is a paratrooper, Green Beret, and a strategist. He has been the Initiatives Group Chief for the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Forces Command, the Chief of the Strategy Division on the Joint Staff where he led the effort to write the National Military Strategy, and then as the Army representative for the current National Defense Strategy that will be shortly released. As an academic, he has taught at West Point, was a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and has a BS from West Point, an MA from Yale, and an MPP and PhD from Duke University. He is the author of When Presidents Fight the Last War: The Oval Office, Sunk Costs, and Wartime Decision-Making Since Vietnam (University of Kentucky Press, 2025)
JP Clark is an associate professor of military strategy teaching in the Basic Strategic Art Program. He served in the army for twenty-six years as an armor officer and strategist. He holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in history from Duke University, an M.S.S. from the Army War College, and a B.S. in Russian and German from West Point. He is the author of Preparing for War: The Emergence of the Modern U.S. Army, 1815-1917 (Harvard, 2017). He is currently working on a history of U.S. military strategy in the Pacific from 1898 to 1941 that is under contract with the University Press of Kansas. He is the 3rd Editor-in-Chief of War Room.
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Army War College, U.S. Army, or Department of Defense.
Photo Description: President Barack Obama speaks to a crowd of Marines, sailors and family members aboard Camp Pendleton, Aug. 7, 2013. President Obama visited the base to thank the Marines and sailors for their commitment to the mission in Iraq and Afghanistan and commended 1st Marine Division for being the most ready when the nation is least ready.
Photo Credit: Sgt. Michael Cifuentes
