Information has never been more available as it is in this modern age of the Internet, 24-hour news, streaming services and endless sources of data collection devices and methods. Jeff Baker and Bob Bradford are back with their second and final article dealing with data and analysis and its role in strategic decision making. This part of the series addresses challenges with data and types and implications of errors in data analysis. It’s a great primer on the types of error that leaders encounter in data collection, processing and presentation and how they can lead to bad decisions.
Tag Archives: critical thinking
A FEW THINGS LEADERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT DATA AND ANALYSIS – PART 1
Information has never been more available as it is in this modern age of the Internet, 24-hour news, streaming services and endless sources of data collection devices and methods. But as the old saying goes “figures always lie and liars always figure.” Now, no one is calling anybody a liar here, but information that has been collected, analyzed, used, manipulated, or just presented always has the potential for bias and even deception–intentional or not. WAR ROOM welcomes back Jeff Baker and Bob Bradford as they present a two-part article that tries to tackle the difficult task of making sense of data in decision making. Part one addresses the sources of data and how the social sciences can be used to arm leaders with better questions and improved judgment.
THE INFORMATION APOCALYPSE PART X: THE ROAD AHEAD
“Great leaders have a vision of the future that does not yet exist, and an ability to communicate that vision. When we put words to the world we imagine, we can inspire others to join us in creating a brighter future.” Simon Sinek The future is replete with opportunities for managing the pace of change, responding to change, […]
LIKE YOUR BRAIN HAS JUST GONE TO THE GYM (WARGAMING ROOM)
A BETTER PEACE welcomes Chris Dougherty and Becca Wasser from The Gaming Lab at the Center for New American Security (CNAS). Chris and Becca join host Ken Gilliam in our special series the WARGAMING ROOM to discuss the efforts and contributions of CNAS to the gaming world. The three discuss how strategic gaming is used […]
WANTED: INNOVATION TOOLS FOR AIR FORCE LEADERS
The Air Force may say it values innovation and experimentation, but despite significant efforts and “innovation theater,” we fall short. How do you do more with less? The Air Force, like most organizations, has always had to learn how to operate in an environment with finite resources. Despite a 156.3 billion dollar budget in 2019, […]
RUSSIAN EXPANSION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HYBRID WARFARE
Cyber-attacks intentionally targeted the information systems of the Georgian government, where the flow of communications revolved around particular websites. In 2008, during the Summer Olympics in Beijing, the Russian armed forces began an invasion of Georgia through South Ossetia. The war with Georgia lasted only five days, and there were less than 1,000 battle deaths […]
IMAGINING OVERMATCH: CRITICAL DOMAINS IN THE NEXT WAR (A WHITEBOARD)
As global politics and the international order destabilize, planners, strategists, and warfighters the world over are reminded that the threat of armed, large-scale conflict is a central feature in the histories of states. Recent conflict between China and India in the Galwan Valley and ongoing military buildups in that region testify to this fact. While […]
THAT ONE MOST IMPORTANT THING: (A WHITEBOARD)
War College students are at a point of significant departure in their careers, as their post-study assignments will generally put them in rapid-paced, constantly shifting circumstances. For this Whiteboard we reached out again to several scholars with the following prompt: What is the most important thing a war college student should learn in their year […]
THEY REALLY READ IT FOR THE ARTICLES
Playboy magazine first hit newsstands in December 1953, so it was quite well established by the time the United States joined the conflict in Vietnam. Derided by a portion of the population as disgraceful smut, the common retort from the men who perused the sordid pages was “I just read it for the articles.” A […]
SOCIAL MEDIA: GOOD MEDICINE OR A BAD PILL (EISENHOWER SERIES)
There is a concept called collective coping. It’s using social media and specifically social relationships to cope with issues…more than ever you can see that people are reaching out. In September of 2019 we introduced you to the Eisenhower Series College Program. Members of the Eisenhower Program began the year on the road visiting colleges […]
MORAL LEADERSHIP IN COMPLEX STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTS
AT ALL TIMES…LEADERS MUST ENDEAVOR TO DEMONSTRATE UNIMPEACHABLE INTEGRITY AND CHARACTER. We can—and should—expect leaders to make honest mistakes in the face of complex challenges, hardships, dilemmas, and difficult decisions. At all times, however, leaders must endeavor to demonstrate unimpeachable integrity and character. Leaders must be the moral and ethical compass for those they lead […]
THE INFORMATION APOCALYPSE, PART V: THE FOURTH ESTATE
It is twice as hard to crush a half-truth as a whole lie. Austin O’Malley, Keystones of Thought, p. 19 The Fourth Estate is in a state of turmoil today, and traditional media is stagnating. Part of this state of affairs is the result of changing perceptions. The news media continues to be viewed […]
LYKKE’S LITTLE THREE-LEGGED STOOL (PART 2)
This was never meant to be the be all and the end all…let’s remember this title of my little 4-page magnum opus…’Toward An Understanding of Military Strategy’ A BETTER PEACE welcomes back U.S. Army Colonel (retired) Arthur F. Lykke for the second and final part of his interview. Having explained the birthplace of the three-legged-stool […]
LYKKE’S LITTLE THREE-LEGGED STOOL (PART 1)
The Vice [Chief of Staff] of the Army…came to the War College…and the first thing he said to me was something like ‘Art why the hell does Senator Nunn want to talk to you about strategy…?’ If you’ve ever participated in strategic-level professional military education you’re probably familiar with his work. If you’ve ever listened […]
BOOK LOVERS NEED APPLY: A DUSTY SHELVES PODCAST
One of the things we’re trying to do is encourage people…to start talking about older books, older readings, older things that are lost or never really well known that really should have been. A BETTER PEACE welcomes WAR ROOM editors Tom Bruscino and Jon Klug to explain the drive and desire behind the DUSTY SHELVES […]
ESTIMATING THE SITUATION: INTUITION, DELIBERATION, OR A THIRD WAY?
To delay action in an emergency because of insufficient information shows a lack of energetic leadership and may result in lost opportunities. The commander must take calculated risks. The estimate of the situation has been a fixture in U.S. Army operation orders since 1909, with roots dating back to the late 19th century and […]
THE VALUE OF INQUIRY
…he offered a surprising unsolicited opinion. He shrugged his shoulders and quipped that staff rides were overdone. They were great fun but lacked relevance in our digital world. Sometimes chance encounters leave lasting impressions. Earlier this summer in Carlisle, I ran into an officer I served with a few years ago. He is extraordinarily intelligent. […]
IS “VUCA” A USEFUL TERM OR IS IT ALL “VUCA’ED” UP?
To treat our own time period as though it is somehow exceptional feels intellectually and morally wrong. Do we need a new lexicon or do we already have the right words that we are misapplying? For a quarter century, a popular term to describe the modern strategic environment has been “VUCA,” an acronym meaning “Volatile, […]
POLICY SUCCESS VS. INTEL FAILURE?
Failure is not just the result of one part of the equation. [Sometimes] you can give the right piece of intelligence and they won’t act on it. What does it take to be a successful intelligence officer or civilian? Or perhaps, what negative traits indicate the likelihood of failure? In this second episode in the […]
THE ART OF GAMING: STRATEGIC EDITION
Gaming is a useful method for educating Army strategists. … Command and General Staff College [has] already started to use simple gaming in their instruction. Would it surprise you that Monopoly can help teach accounting principles? Or that chess players build their critical thinking and strategy skills? Games are known to be useful as educational […]