STRATEGIC ATTACKS AND THEIR FALLOUT

It’s silly to expect that intelligence will always get it right. WAR ROOM welcomes Dr. Richard Betts from Columbia University to discuss what success and failure really mean in the intelligence community. For example, when adversaries successfully strike U.S. targets, the results are tragic and are often followed by soul searching and, unfortunately, blame. Success […]

BLACK SWAN, RED BEARD: RECOGNIZING THE UNEXPECTED

The real challenge with black swan events is not accurate anticipation, but timely recognition. It is useful to remind ourselves regularly of the capacity of human beings to persist in stupid beliefs in the face of significant, contradictory evidence. On 22 June, 1941*, the Third Reich launched Operation Barbarossa, a massive invasion of the Soviet […]