BLACK SWAN, RED BEARD: RECOGNIZING THE UNEXPECTED

The real challenge with black swan events is not accurate anticipation, but timely recognition. It is useful to remind ourselves regularly of the capacity of human beings to persist in stupid beliefs in the face of significant, contradictory evidence. On 22 June, 1941*, the Third Reich launched Operation Barbarossa, a massive invasion of the Soviet […]

RETHINKING STRATEGIES FOR DEFENSE MODERNIZATION: A PODCAST

The defense acquisition system has been the subject of much controversy and criticism. From the “Sisyphus Paradox” to more recent studies on defense acquisition reform, critics have complained about the process of acquisition being too slow and cumbersome. But far less attention has been given to the strategy of acquisition. How should defense leaders make investment choices that address shorter-term needs while preserving long-term opportunities? Mark Kappelmann and Andrew Hill provide analysis and offer ideas and recommendations in this War Room Podcast.

Watch Colonel Mark Kappelmann in a panel discussion on military innovation at the Center for New American Security.

GOOD LUCK WITH THE STRATEGY, MR. SECRETARY… IT’S A ‘RISKY’ UNDERTAKING

DoD strategy development and risk assessment cannot afford to rest exclusively on war plans that are never executed, scenarios that reinforce service biases, or nostalgia for competition as it once was, not as it actually is. It is time for the Department of Defense (DoD) to develop a fresh risk perspective. Without it, 21st century threats […]